Mets Trade Target 2010: Kevin Millwood

Kevin Millwood, RHP Baltimore Orioles
2010 season: 2-8, 5.22, 101.2 IP, 1.51 WHIP

An 11th round draft pick in 1993 by the Atlanta Braves, Kevin Millwood has been a pleasant surprise throughout his career. After his rookie season with Atlanta in 1997, a 23-year old Millwood won 17 games in his first full season in 1998, finishing 17-8 with a 4.08 ERA. However, the best of Millwood was yet to come. In 1999, arguably his best season, he finished 18-7 with a 2.68 ERA and made the National League All-Star Team for the first and only time in this career. His next two seasons were disappointing, as Millwood failed to have an above .500 record. He found his groove again in 2002 however, going 18-8 with a 3.24 ERA. The 2002 season would be Millwood's last with Atlanta, as he was traded prior to 2003 to the Philadelphia Phillies. During his first year in Philadelphia, the North Carolina native went 14-12 with a 4.02 ERA, while also pitching a no-hitter on April 27, 2003 against the San Francisco Giants. He was granted free agency following the 2004 season, and signed a 1-year contract with the Cleveland Indians. He finished with a 9-11 record in Cleveland due to poor run support, but also had a 2.86 ERA, which ultimately boosted his value and helped him cash in. Following 2005, Millwood was a free agent again, and on December 26, 2005 signed a five-year $60 million contract with the Texas Rangers. His years in Texas have led some to believe that he was overpaid. He finished 16-12 in 2006, but had a 4.02 ERA and had a sub .500 record with ERAs over 5.00 until 2009, where even then he went just 13-10. Millwood was traded to Baltimore following the 2009 season for Chris Ray and Ben Snyder. He is currently 2-8 this season with a 5.22 ERA. During his 14-year career, Millwood is 157-129 with a career 4.08 ERA.

The 2010 season could not be any more harsh for Kevin Millwood, 35, than it has been. Pitching on a Baltimore team that has the worst record in baseball at 20-52, and is projected to be historically one of the worst teams ever, Millwood has gone through the bad of the 2010 season. Through his first 14 starts this season, Millwood was 0-8. He won for the first time this season on June 19th against the San Diego Padres. His last two starts have resulted at wins, pushing his record to 2-8 on the season. Millwood has made 16 starts this season, with some wins being lost due to the weak Baltimore offense and terrible bullpen. Recently the Orioles have stated that they are open for trade and are willing to deal the right-handed Millwood. You can't help but think that Millwood would be thrilled to get out of Baltimore.

Among the interested teams in Millwood: the "pitching-hungry" New York Mets.

We've heard the Mets connected to Millwood in trade rumors this season. Many feel as though Millwood would come cheap due to his age and performance this season. As well as age and performance, his $12 million salary also presents a reason for him to come cheap, especially if the acquiring team, in this case the Mets, has to pay it. The other reason that many feel he would cost low prospects is because Millwood's contract runs out at the end of the season, making him a free agent.

There's always the issue of what to give up as far as prospects go. Due to his age, effectiveness, and cost, if I'm the Mets I'm not giving more than a B minus or C level prospect. That means a trade of LHP Eric Niesen and RHP Tobi Stoner for Millwood, especially if the Mets are paying his salary. Seeing as the Mets would most likely not sign Millwood to an extension with Cliff Lee as a free agent, that package of prospects seems fair to give especially with Millwood's 2-8 record. While I think that it would be a good rental for the Mets to acquire Millwood, I don't think that it may be the best option to go to, especially with Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, Fausto Carmona, and Jake Westbrook available.

Then, there is the question of do the Mets really feel that Millwood will help them out? He's 2-8 with an ERA over 5.00 this season, and has an opponent's avg against of .299. That is scary. He's also given up 31 BB this season. All the while, he's making $12 million. If the Mets are truly making a playoff push, I don't think Millwood is their answer. A rotation that includes Santana-Pelfrey-Millwood-Niese-Dickey would not scare me come a short playoff series.

As for me, I'd rather spend the prospects and money on someone younger and cheaper, such as Fausto Carmona or Cliff Lee. If I'm the Mets, I'm not trading for Millwood. I feel for the guy, pitching in Baltimore and having a harsh season, but he's not the answer to the Mets hopes and hopefully will get traded elsewhere to compete.

Mets discussing trade for Indians' RHP Fausto Carmona

It appears as though the Mets have been internally discussing a trade for Westbrook's teammate Fausto Carmona, who I will be writing about on 6/23. It couldn't come at a better time, as I just finished writing the capsule on Jake Westbrook.

According to MLBTradeRumors' Ben Nicholson-Smith:

"The Mets have discussed Fausto Carmona internally, but have not yet approached the Indians about acquiring the right-hander, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney. (all Twitter links). Carmona, who is enjoying a resurgent season, makes a guaranteed $8.9MM through 2011 at which point the Indians have three consecutive club options. As Olney notes, the affordable options through 2014 make Carmona appealing as long as he is pitching well.

That has certainly been the case so far in 2010. The former 19-game winner has a 3.31 ERA in 92.1 innings with 5.1 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9. Carmona has always been a ground ball pitcher, rather than a strikeout pitcher, and he has a robust 57% ground ball rate that has helped him keep the ball in the park (six homers allowed).

The Mets are looking for top starters, but are unsure that Carmona will adjust smoothly to the pressures of playing in New York, according to an article Olney wrote over the weekend. If they prefer to acquire a veteran on the brink of free agency, they could look to Carmona's teammate, Jake Westbrook, or others such as Kevin Millwood and Ben Sheets."

So it appears as though the Mets are working on putting together a deal for Carmona, but also may trade for Westbrook. The Mets may be looking at Carmona because of his lesser salary of about $4 million to Westbrook's $11 million, his age, 26, as well as his resurgence as a top pitcher. What do you think the Mets should do? Who should they give up? Discuss it in the comments. No matter what happens, we'll have it all here for you!

Mets 2010 Trade Target: Jake Westbrook

Jake Westbrook, RHP Cleveland Indians
2010 season: 4-4, 4.76 ERA, 85 IP, 1.46 WHIP

A year removed from Tommy John Surgery, Jake Westbrook is back in the big leagues. An above average major league pitcher, Westbrook has a career 67-68 record with a 4.34 ERA, while pitching for the New York Yankees (1 season) and Cleveland Indians (9 seasons). A 21st overall pick in the 1996 MLB Draft by the Colorado Rockies, Westbrook was traded to the Montreal Expos for Mike Lansing and later traded again to the New York Yankees with Ted Lilly for pitcher Hideki Irabu. Westbrook made his major league debut on June 17, 2000 with the Yankees, going 0-2 with a 13.50 ERA for the season. After being sent down, Westbrook, along with Zach Day and Ricky Ledee were traded to Cleveland for Indians' slugger David Justice. In his career, Westbrook has always hovered around .500, having 9 or more losses in each full season that he has pitched, including a career high 15 losses in 2005. Westbrook's best season was in 2004, the year he made the AL All-Star team, when he went 14-9 with a 3.38 ERA. One can make a case for the amount of losses that Westbrook has each season, due to a poor Cleveland bullpen and lack of run support throughout his tenure. Westbrook is in the final year of a 3-year $33 million contract, which runs out after this year making him a free agent.

This season, with the Indians again struggling, Westbrook, 33, has been made available. Among the most interested reported teams: The New York Mets.

The Mets have been linked to Westbrook this year in trade rumors. While the Mets rotation of Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, Jon Niese, Hisanori Takahashi, and R.A. Dickey has pitched surprisingly well, the Mets reportedly want to put Takahashi back into the bullpen where he has pitched his whole career. Takahashi, originally just a fill-in while John Maine rehabs, has pitched surprisingly well as a starter, going 6-2 with a 3.13 ERA. However, the Mets feel he is more effective in the bullpen. If the Mets want to put him back in the bullpen, this would open up a spot in their rotation for Westbrook. After disappointing seasons from Oliver Perez and Maine, the Mets look to upgrade their rotation as they make a playoff push. They may feel that a trade for Westbrook could improve their chances.

A rotation of Santana, Pelfrey, Niese, Westbrook and Dickey would be a great rotation for the Mets. With Santana being Santana and Pelfrey having a career year, inserting Westbrook, who has been an AL pitcher his whole career, will improve the rotation. It's been a proven that some AL pitchers who move to the NL become better pitchers because they face weaker hitters (see Roy Halladay). The AL has always been portrayed as the stronger league, and it's been proven. Perhaps putting Westbrook into the NL will help to resurrect his career and he will become a much more effective pitcher.

While Westbrook would be a good fit for the Mets, there are some questions as to if he can stay healthy, especially after coming off Tommy John Surgery, and if the Mets will really need him. One reason why the Mets may not need him is because they sent down top prospect Jenrry Mejia yesterday, in order to stretch him out to be a starting pitcher. Perhaps they envision Mejia coming back up mid-season and taking Takahashi's spot in the rotation, therefore having no need for Westbrook. However, I don't think that the Mets envision R.A. Dickey pitching like Cy Young all season, so perhaps they may look to trade for Westbrook just incase Dickey comes back down to earth. A rotation of Santana, Pelfrey, Niese, Westbrook and Mejia, with Dickey and Takahashi in the bullpen would be incredible for the Mets.

Then there is the issue of what to give for Westbrook. I can't imagine the Indians asking for a King's Ransom for him because he's not on the same level as the last two guys they traded in Cliff Lee or CC Sabathia. I could imagine the Mets giving a B minus-level prospect, with a couple of C-level throw ins. An ideal package could include RHP Jeurys Familia as well as C Josh Thole and RHP Tobi Stoner. The Indians would probably require the Mets to pay his $11 million salary. If the Mets can get away with Cleveland paying full salary or paying half, I do the deal. The Mets didn't want to commit $14 million to John Lackey, so why would they want to commit $11 million to Westbrook, who isn't as good? If the Indians are able to get that much talent back, I'd be surprised. While Omar Minaya is subject to make trades, this would be a great deal for the Mets and would drastically improve the rotation.

I think that a trade for Westbrook would make the Mets an ultimate contender. Moving an AL pitcher who has to face the Red Sox, Rays, Yankees, Twins, and Angels every year to the NL, where he would face the Nationals, Pirates, Astros, and Diamonbacks would improve Westbrook's stats. The best thing that could happen for Westbrook is to get out of Cleveland, where the bullpen and lack of run support will cost him wins. If traded to the Mets, their powerful bullpen and immense run scoring would help him do better and attribute to success. I could see him going 15-6 with an ERA in the 3.60's in the NL. The Mets should make a push to acquire him, as he would make the rotation much better.