Mariners have set parameter to Lee trade with Mets

Geoff Baker, who covers the Mariners for The Seattle Times, has heard a new rumor involving the Cliff Lee sweepstakes. I dissected the sweet spots of the article:

- "And today, as Lee gets set to face the Yankees in the Big Apple, the buzz about a possible deal with the crosstown Mets is growing louder and louder."

- "There had been talk that a shoulder injury to Mejia two days ago may thwart New York's bid to land Lee. Mejia is expected to start throwing again within a couple of weeks and as colleague Larry Stone wrote this morning, Mets GM Omar Minaya is reminding folks that his team has other prospects to deal. And there's growing pressure on him to make that deal. The Philadelphia Phillies are not the offensive juggernaut they were expected to be and a Lee acquisition could give the Mets just enough to hold them off and win the NL East. And possibly advance to a World Series."

- "Yes, the Cards offering up the 19th overall pick in last year's draft, pitcher Shelby Miller, is intriguing if true. But he's still a few years away and, if anything, the M's could be better off leveraging those rumors in order to squeeze a better package out of other suitors. As good as Miller could be, he might never be as good as Mejia is right now at a level much closer to the big leagues. And if Mejia is off the table because of the injury, or the M's want a position player instead? Then, you make the deal about catcher Josh Thole, 23, (Photo Credit: AP) a prospect who already posted a .356 OBP in his first 56 plate appearances in the big leagues last season. Throw Thole and Pagan together and you've likely upgraded your catching -- at least offensively --and left field spot for this year and beyond."

- "Word out of New York is that the Mariners have set a Thole-Pagan-pitching prospect trio as the parameters to any Lee deal. It doesn't surprise me the M's would be looking at Pagan as the deal's secondary piece, since he's a better major leaguer right now than any left fielder the Mariners could put out there. At worst, if Michael Saunders were to develop, Pagan would make an excellent fourth outfielder on a championship caliber club. Not a last-place club, a championship caliber club. And there's a huge difference."

- "Asking for top players means you have to maximize what other teams are going to get. That means a full half-season of Lee. If the M's truly want something along the Thole-Pagan-prospect lines -- a fantastic haul, in my opinion -- then they can't dither for another few weeks and wait for the deadline to approach. You likely won't get a much better package than that, even from the Twins.

While Wilson Ramos might be a slightly better catcher than Thole, you're talking about a position where the M's still have a good prospect in Adam Moore and it's only one position out of nine being addressed in the trade return, along with a fourth starter type like Kevin Slowey being acquired as well. This team already has a bunch of fourth and fifth starters. Deal with the Mets, and you're filling two holes at once. Pagan is a good left fielder who can field, get on-base and put up an .800 OPS, which would instantly make him one of the better all-around guys on this Seattle team.

Even if Thole is slightly worse as a catcher than Ramos, as long as he gives you a chance at upgrading what the team already has, you still come out ahead in that deal because you've filled two lineup spots. And filled them effectively, not just with junk."

Also, I got this from Mike Silva's New York Baseball Digest:

- "We all know the Mets interest in Cliff Lee, but to date all we have heard is what they don’t want to give up in a deal.

Yesterday, NYBD talked to a league source that indicated parameters of a deal would include Josh Thole, Angel Pagan, and a prospect for Cliff Lee. At this point I don’t have an idea what kind of prospect they would be looking for, but I would have to assume it would be pitching."

- "It should be obvious why Lee isn’t in Queens yet since Pagan is one of the players, along with Ike Davis, Jenrry Mejia and Jonathon Niese, the Mets are rumored to not want to part with.Again, I don’t believe the Mets should have to overpay for what essentially will be a rental. Thole and a pitching prospect (i.e. Jeurys Familia) should be more than enough."

Wow.

It seems as though Seattle definitely wants OF Angel Pagan and C Josh Thole, but they also want an additional pitching prospect. I agree with Silva that the Mets should offer Pagan, Thole and Familia. That would be a steal if the Mets would be willing to part with those players. Can you imagine a 1-2-3 of Santana-Lee-Pelfrey? Oh my goodness, there's your NL East Champs and NL Champs right there.

It seems Cliff Lee may be making his final start for the Mariners tonight, and what better way to close it out and up your stock than by beating the New York Yankees?

It seems as though the "Cliff Lee to the Mets" rumors keep heating up. We'll be updating all day, making sure to bring you everything that's heard and whispered. Keep it here, because it seems like a deal could be done tonight.

Reports suggest Mets may be frontrunner for Cliff Lee

We've heard the Mets interested in Cliff Lee, but never before like this.

On Sunday, Jenrry Mejia suffered a posterier cuff strain during his second start in Double-AA. Now, analysts are saying that it could be possible for the Mets to acquire Lee without sacrificing Mejia. From MLBTradeRumors:

"Will Jenrry Mejia's posterior cuff strain prevent the Mets from trading for Mariners ace Cliff Lee? GM Omar Minaya obviously could not talk specifically about Lee when asked by Kevin Kernan of the New York Post "if the Mejia setback is a setback to trade possibilities." But Minaya kept a brave face and replied, "I don’t think so because I think we have other very good possibilities." At least one of Minaya's current players does think the team lost its chance to acquire Lee with Mejia's injury, according to Kernan."

The post goes on to say that the Mariners would have interest in Ike Davis, the Mets' star rookie sensation, but that the Mets would bluff at trading him. Instead, the consensus is that Seattle wants young hitters, and their best bet is to go by the Double-AA route. Tim Dierkes' believes that the Mets could not acquire Lee with Fernando Martinez as the center piece, seeing as how his stock has considerably falling, just hitting a robust .248/.299/.397 at Triple-AAA Buffalo.

Mark Hale of the New York Post suggests that the Mets could afford to trade for Lee if they would sacrifice a package of prospects including: INF Ruben Tejada, OF Fernando Martinez, SS Wilmer Flores, RHP Jeurys Familia, INF Reese Havens and C Josh Thole. In my opinion, that is too much to give talent to give for Cliff Lee. Maybe I'd package Tejada, Thole, and Familia with some lower level guys, but that's all the top talent I'm giving. Giving all that talent would wipe out the Mets' farm. It's reported that in any trade for Lee, Seattle wants a catcher, which explains why they have looked so thoroughly at the Yankees' minor league system and scouted Jesus Montero, Austin Romine, J.R. Murphy, Gary Sanchez, and Kyle Higashioka.

However, contrary to MLBTradeRumors last report, the Mets may be interested in trading Mejia to Seattle if Lee gives the Mets a negotiating window to sign to an extension. It's unlikely and it's been said that the Mets would not give up Mejia, Jonathon Niese, and Davis for Lee.

To me, I think that Davis is untouchable, he's the first baseman of the future. Niese is going to be a #3 starter for the Mets for years to come behind Santana and Pelfrey. I'd be comfortable giving up Mejia. Why? Well for starters, you don't have to worry about him hurting you if he becomes good. He'll be in a different league and division, the American League West. Also, he's just a prospect and that's that. Davis and Niese have proved that they can handle the majors, while Mejia, who did come up, was only used as a reliever. If I'm the Mets, I would give up Mejia, but I'd like to find an alternate route to acquiring Lee, even if it means giving up 2 or 3 of my Double-AA prospects.

Mets 2010 Trade Target: Jake Westbrook

Jake Westbrook, RHP Cleveland Indians
2010 season: 4-4, 4.76 ERA, 85 IP, 1.46 WHIP

A year removed from Tommy John Surgery, Jake Westbrook is back in the big leagues. An above average major league pitcher, Westbrook has a career 67-68 record with a 4.34 ERA, while pitching for the New York Yankees (1 season) and Cleveland Indians (9 seasons). A 21st overall pick in the 1996 MLB Draft by the Colorado Rockies, Westbrook was traded to the Montreal Expos for Mike Lansing and later traded again to the New York Yankees with Ted Lilly for pitcher Hideki Irabu. Westbrook made his major league debut on June 17, 2000 with the Yankees, going 0-2 with a 13.50 ERA for the season. After being sent down, Westbrook, along with Zach Day and Ricky Ledee were traded to Cleveland for Indians' slugger David Justice. In his career, Westbrook has always hovered around .500, having 9 or more losses in each full season that he has pitched, including a career high 15 losses in 2005. Westbrook's best season was in 2004, the year he made the AL All-Star team, when he went 14-9 with a 3.38 ERA. One can make a case for the amount of losses that Westbrook has each season, due to a poor Cleveland bullpen and lack of run support throughout his tenure. Westbrook is in the final year of a 3-year $33 million contract, which runs out after this year making him a free agent.

This season, with the Indians again struggling, Westbrook, 33, has been made available. Among the most interested reported teams: The New York Mets.

The Mets have been linked to Westbrook this year in trade rumors. While the Mets rotation of Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, Jon Niese, Hisanori Takahashi, and R.A. Dickey has pitched surprisingly well, the Mets reportedly want to put Takahashi back into the bullpen where he has pitched his whole career. Takahashi, originally just a fill-in while John Maine rehabs, has pitched surprisingly well as a starter, going 6-2 with a 3.13 ERA. However, the Mets feel he is more effective in the bullpen. If the Mets want to put him back in the bullpen, this would open up a spot in their rotation for Westbrook. After disappointing seasons from Oliver Perez and Maine, the Mets look to upgrade their rotation as they make a playoff push. They may feel that a trade for Westbrook could improve their chances.

A rotation of Santana, Pelfrey, Niese, Westbrook and Dickey would be a great rotation for the Mets. With Santana being Santana and Pelfrey having a career year, inserting Westbrook, who has been an AL pitcher his whole career, will improve the rotation. It's been a proven that some AL pitchers who move to the NL become better pitchers because they face weaker hitters (see Roy Halladay). The AL has always been portrayed as the stronger league, and it's been proven. Perhaps putting Westbrook into the NL will help to resurrect his career and he will become a much more effective pitcher.

While Westbrook would be a good fit for the Mets, there are some questions as to if he can stay healthy, especially after coming off Tommy John Surgery, and if the Mets will really need him. One reason why the Mets may not need him is because they sent down top prospect Jenrry Mejia yesterday, in order to stretch him out to be a starting pitcher. Perhaps they envision Mejia coming back up mid-season and taking Takahashi's spot in the rotation, therefore having no need for Westbrook. However, I don't think that the Mets envision R.A. Dickey pitching like Cy Young all season, so perhaps they may look to trade for Westbrook just incase Dickey comes back down to earth. A rotation of Santana, Pelfrey, Niese, Westbrook and Mejia, with Dickey and Takahashi in the bullpen would be incredible for the Mets.

Then there is the issue of what to give for Westbrook. I can't imagine the Indians asking for a King's Ransom for him because he's not on the same level as the last two guys they traded in Cliff Lee or CC Sabathia. I could imagine the Mets giving a B minus-level prospect, with a couple of C-level throw ins. An ideal package could include RHP Jeurys Familia as well as C Josh Thole and RHP Tobi Stoner. The Indians would probably require the Mets to pay his $11 million salary. If the Mets can get away with Cleveland paying full salary or paying half, I do the deal. The Mets didn't want to commit $14 million to John Lackey, so why would they want to commit $11 million to Westbrook, who isn't as good? If the Indians are able to get that much talent back, I'd be surprised. While Omar Minaya is subject to make trades, this would be a great deal for the Mets and would drastically improve the rotation.

I think that a trade for Westbrook would make the Mets an ultimate contender. Moving an AL pitcher who has to face the Red Sox, Rays, Yankees, Twins, and Angels every year to the NL, where he would face the Nationals, Pirates, Astros, and Diamonbacks would improve Westbrook's stats. The best thing that could happen for Westbrook is to get out of Cleveland, where the bullpen and lack of run support will cost him wins. If traded to the Mets, their powerful bullpen and immense run scoring would help him do better and attribute to success. I could see him going 15-6 with an ERA in the 3.60's in the NL. The Mets should make a push to acquire him, as he would make the rotation much better.