Thursday, October 20, 2011

The 2011 World Series: Who Cares?

Can I get a show of hands for who would have picked the 2011 World Series matchup of the St. Louis Cardinals vs. the Texas Rangers?

Anyone at all? No one? Not so shocking because, quite honestly, who would have predicted that outcome at the start of the 2011 season?

Who cares about the World Series?

If you thought last year's World Series (San Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangers in which SFG won) was dull and drew low ratings (8.4 rating was the lowest in history - tied with 2008 Tampa Bay Rays vs. Philadelphia Phillies), well, it's pretty much the same situation this year.

You guessed it: Two non-east coast teams, in not-so-big sports markets, competing yet again for baseball's title. Yes, the Cardinals have a great fan base in St. Louis and it's bigger than San Francisco's, but let's be honest: it's nothing compared to the fan bases of baseball's powerhouse east coast teams. As for the Rangers' fan base, it's just beginning to take shape. In two consecutive American League West division titles and American League Pennants later (2010 & 2011), it's grown, but still is no match for the eastern teams. For Fox broadcasting, this means another year of record low World Series ratings.

It's no secret that Fox's broadcasting of the playoffs and World Series is always higher when any of the big east coast teams are in it. Those teams have bigger fan bases, the names fans want to see, the history, so much more at stake, and most importantly...

The most amount of haters.

Believe it or not, but the New York Yankees are good for baseball. So are the Boston Red Sox, Philadelphia Phillies, and (wait for it) New York Mets.

How can these teams, all four of which are in the top 10 in payroll, be good for the game? How can these teams that buy talent be considered vital to baseball? Aren't their tactics for success ruining the game for fans of smaller market teams?

While the average small-market fan hates these teams for all the reasons mentioned above, television broadcasting stations and Major League Baseball, on the other hand, have a different opinion.

They love them.

Why?

It's all about the money.

Consider the following statistics:
  • 2010 World Series: Giants vs. Rangers - Ratings Average of 8.8
  • 2009 World Series: Yankees vs. Phillies - Ratings Average of 11.7
  • 2008 World Series: Phillies vs. Rays - Ratings Average of 8.4
  • 2007 World Series: Red Sox vs. Rockies - Ratings Average of 10.7
  • 2006 World Series: Cardinals vs. Tigers - Ratings Average of 10.1
  • 2005 World Series: White Sox vs. Astros - Ratings Average of 11.2
  • 2004 World Series: Red Sox vs. Cardinals - Ratings Average of 15.8
  • 2003 World Series: Marlins vs. Yankees - Ratings Average of 12.8
  • 2002 World Series: Angels vs. Giants - Ratings Average of 12.0
  • 2001 World Series: Diamondbacks vs. Yankees - Ratings Average of 15.5
  • 2000 World Series: Yankees vs. Mets - Ratings Average of 15.5
Of the Top Five World Series ratings of the past decade, four featured at least one east coast team. As well, one can note the significant drop in ratings after the 2007 World Series, in which the Red Sox played, to the 2008 World Series (before Philadelphia became a major powerhouse) which featured, at the time, two small market teams.

However, after Philadelphia won the 2008 World Series and found themselves in the 2009 World Series against baseball's most-watched money-making machine, the Yankees, ratings rose over 30%, only to fall back down 30% during the 2010 World Series.

So, why do television broadcasts and Major League Baseball do so well when east coast teams (specifically the Yankees, who appear 3/5 times in the top five) are in the World Series?

It's simple, really: People want to see the Yankees lose.

Baseball fans hate the Yankees. They hate their money, winning, and fans. Consider this: Last year, TBS broadcasted the ALCS between the Yankees and Rangers, averaging a 5.1 rating. This year, TBS broadcasted the NLCS between the Cardinals and Brewers, drawing a 2.9 rating. Drop-off much?

That's not to say baseball fans don't hate the Phillies or Red Sox as well. They have just as much money and winnings as the Yankees do. But it's a fact: people want to see the best teams in baseball in the World Series. That's why the Red Sox and Phillies was supposed to be a lock for this year's fall classic. Had the Red Sox not collapsed, and Philadelphia not underperformed, ratings for this year's series might be on the cusp of the top five.

I'm still going to watch the World Series. I love baseball, and always will. Will I care as much though, seeing as neither of baseball's best teams in their respective leagues are in it? Probably not. No one, I mean no one, could have predicted this World Series. I don't expect these ratings to be at an all-time-low however. St. Louis is a great baseball city and their fans will get those ratings up.

As John Sterling always says: "You can't predict baseball."

Cardinals in seven.

Thursday, October 13, 2011

Theo Epstein: Savior?


Since their epic collapse at the end of the 2011 season, the Boston Red Sox have not had trouble staying out of the headlines.

From the disbelief of the team's collapse, Terry Francona's duties relieved as manager of the club, the allegations that Red Sox pitchers were drinking beer, eating fried chicken and playing video games in the clubhouse on days which they did not start, to questions of the leadership of veteran players in the clubhouse, the Red Sox have been the punch-line of everything gone wrong since the end of the season.

To make matters worse, the team has now lost its "Michelangelo," so to speak. The architect who constructed a team that was destined to have been the 2011 World Series Champions, is trading his office at Fenway Park for a new one at Wrigley Field.

Yesterday, (now former) Boston Red Sox General Manager Theo Epstein agreed to a five-year contract worth $20 million with the Chicago Cubs to become their new GM and President of Baseball Operations. The lovable losers have brought in Epstein with the intent of ending their dismal 103-year World Series Championship drought and ending the "Curse of the Billy Goat." Epstein, who constructed two World Championship Red Sox teams, including the 2004 team that broke the 86-year "Curse of the Bambino," is no stranger to breaking curses.

Theo Epstein: General Manager, President of Baseball Operations &... Savior?

That has a nice ring to it.

The news of Epstein signing with the Cubs is only another spiral in the downfall that the Red Sox have endured this postseason.

Just a few weeks ago, there was speculation at the end of the season after the collapse that perhaps Epstein would bolt Beantown to go to Chicago to fill their GM vacancy. At the time, Epstein was still under contract with the Red Sox for one more year, his contract expiring after the 2012 season. While many thought it was unlikely that Epstein would leave a guaranteed 90+ win team with the capabilities of contending for a championship every year, as well as an ownership group that had pockets deep enough to contend with the Steinbrenner's in New York, growing belief in the baseball industry was that Epstein had "had enough" in Boston after nine years, and that he was looking for a new challenge.

In 2002, the Red Sox appointed Epstein, just 28 years old at the time, general manager of the club, making him the third youngest GM in baseball history and the youngest at that time. Since Epstein took over in November 2002, the Red Sox:
  • Have won 90 or more games seven out of Epstein's nine seasons
  • Won the 2007 American League East Division
  • Won the American League Wild Card five times
  • Appeared in the playoffs six times of the nine seasons
  • Won two World Series Championships in 2004 & 2007
  • Have a payroll of $160,257,476 - the third largest in MLB
To say the least, Theo Epstein has turned the Boston Red Sox into a major league Power-House.

Good luck to the guy who steps in to fill Epstein's shoes.

However, while Theo might be "the guy" for the Cubs who delivers them a championship, that isn't to say that Epstein isn't without flaws.

The allegations that pitchers Jon Lester, Josh Beckett and John Lackey drank beer, ate fried chicken and played video games in the clubhouse on days on which they did not pitch led many to believe that perhaps Epstein and now ex-manager Terry Francona did not have the respect of their players. Francona, as the manager, is in charge of the ball club from a team perspective, and does not have the power that Epstein does. It's simply unacceptable that Epstein would allow his players to do such things in the clubhouse, especially with the power he had as a general manager. It's unprofessional and embarrassing.

Despite these allegations, Epstein has also been known to fall in love with signing big-name free agents to long-term, expensive deals, many of which have not been worth the money printed on their paycheck. The most recent examples include left fielder Carl Crawford, pitcher John Lackey, and outfielder J.D. Drew - all of which have mediocre, if not less, during their tenure in Boston.

So what does the future look like in Boston? Right now, it does not look too promising. Yes, the team still has its core players intact with the likes of Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Adrian Gonzalez, but after a season in which the team released their eight-year veteran manager, lost perhaps the best general manager in baseball, had controversy in the front-office, drama in the clubhouse, and disappointment on the field, the future looks cloudy. Ben Cherington, the assistant to the general manager, is the favorite to be Boston's new GM. He'll have a big offseason ahead of him, not just with the likes of Jonathan Papelbon and David Ortiz scheduled to hit free agency, but to rebuild the organization.

On the bright side, how does the future look in Chicago, Cubs fans?

Being a life-long Yankees fan, I've never experienced "losing." However, since I arrived at Indiana University, I've noticed the extreme amount of Cubs fans on campus. When the MLB Playoffs started, Cubs fans could not care more. The Cubs had just wrapped up a season in which they finished in 5th place in the NL Central (in part to the Houston Astros for being horrible), at 71-91. They were prepared to lose All-Star third baseman Aramis Ramirez via free agency, and the dreams of capturing a championship in 2012 seemed bleak. What seemed more than likely was that the Cubs' drought would continue.

Now, with news that come November the Houston Astros will be changing leagues and moving to the AL West, the Cubs have a very real possibility of finishing in last place in the central. However, those thoughts have since been put to rest.

Enter, Theo Epstein: curse-breaker.

That's right: Theo Epstein is going to break the curse of the Billy Goat.

I said it when former Cubs GM Jim Hendry was fired, while Epstein was still with the Red Sox and before speculation even began to swirl. Epstein and Chicago would be a perfect fit.

Imagine if Epstein, who already broke the 86-year "Curse of the Bambino" could break the 103-year "Curse of the Billy Goat?" That's over 180 years of curses that Epstein would have solved. Could he be a mortal baseball god? Perhaps that's getting too ahead of things, but if Epstein were to break the Cubs' curse, he would be a Hall of Fame GM.

That being said, no, the Chicago Cubs will not win a championship next year, or perhaps the year after. Epstein's first few years with the Cubs will be rebuilding years. Do not expect him to sign Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder or any other big name this year via free agency. Do not expect Epstein to handicap the Cubs with big-contracts.

Instead, expect Epstein to rebuild the entire Cubs organization from the ground up. Epstein will re-stock the entire Cubs farm system, which ranked 16th overall last season in Baseball America's farm system rankings, with pure baseball talent. He'll build a team around shortstop and face-of-the-franchise Starlin Castro, second baseman Darwin Barney, and pitcher Matt Garza.

While we can speculate all day about who will be playing for the Cubs next season, right now Epstein's first task is hiring a new manager. It's more than likely that manager Mike Quade will not return next season, and rumors circulated that whoever the new Cubs' GM was, they would bring someone from outside the organization. Could a Francona-Epstein reunion be re-ignited in Chi-Town? That would instill a winning mentality for sure, and would draw players to the friendly confines of legendary Wrigley Field.

Now here's my bold prediction: Within three years of Epstein's tenure as Cubs' GM, the Cubs will return winning form and will win a championship under Epstein. I stand behind that statement 100%.

In Theo Epstein, the Chicago Cubs are getting a General Manager who has been exposed the beauties and ugliness of baseball in the American League East. They are getting a GM who has never been afraid to spend money to get resources that his club needs. Most importantly, the Cubs are hiring a GM who knows the one major concept of baseball: winning.

Marty McFly (played by Michael J. Fox) predicted in Back to the Future II that the Cubs would win the World Series in 2015, and you have to admit, with Epstein at the helm of baseball operations, it's looking more and more likely. Then again, maybe that's just a coincidence.

Get ready Cubs fans, the future in Chicago starts now.