The New York Mets are in a tailspin:
- They're last in the NL East at 14-18, and it doesn't look like it's going to get any better.
- They have the highest payroll in the National League.
- The owners, Fred and Jeff Wilpon, are currently not only a billion dollars in debt, but are under investigation due to their involvement in the Bernie Madoff ponzi scam and may lose control of the team.
- The team is for sale, but no one's buying.
- The team is financially handicapped, and may not have the money to re-sign All-Star short stop and franchise favorite Jose Reyes.
So yeah, one could say there's some issues with this organization.
It hasn't been all bad though. New GM Sandy Alderson's signings of Chris Young (1-0, 1.88), Jason Isringhausen (9 IP, 2.89), and Chris Capuano (2-3, 5.40 - but he's been great recently) have been very surprising and productive so far early in this season. Rule 5 selection RHP Pedro Beato, who's currently on the DL with elbow tendinitis, has been perhaps one of the best stories on the team not named Ike Davis. Through 17 innings pitched this season, the rookie reliever has an ERA of 0.00 with 10 strikeouts and a WHIP of 0.71.
However, that's about it for what's been good for the New York Mets this season.
It seems as though inevitably the team is going to have a fire-sale this season. Despite their recent six-game win streak, the Mets are not going to compete this season. They simply do not have the pitching or chemistry to keep up with the Philadelphia Phillies, Florida Marlins, and Atlanta Braves. They'll most likely remain in the cellar of the NL East, and what's worse is that they are so in debt, that they can't make moves during the season, or even in the next offseason, for star players because they simply can't afford them. Mets fans are fearing the end of the season, mainly because they're expecting Jose Reyes to leave. Why? The Mets cannot afford him.
If the Mets decide to call it quits and go into full-sell mode, you could expect to see these three names in the daily New York headlines: Jose Reyes, All-Star third baseman David Wright, and outfielder Carlos Beltran. With the exception of Davis, Beato, and Jon Niese, everybody should be made available. But here's the harsh reality Mets fans...
Jose Reyes and David Wright will not be New York Mets by the end of the 2011 campaign.
It pains me to say it - it pains Mets fans to read it - but that's the truth. Reyes and Wright, who are the two faces of the franchise, are the team's best trade chips.
So let's take a look at both players and see what the Mets could get in return as they try to rebuild.
Jose Reyes
Position: SS
2011 season: .326, HR, 10 RBI, .377 OBP, 12 SB
Free Agency: End of 2011 season
If Jose Reyes is not a New York Met by the July 31 trading deadline, then it's more than likely he will not be a New York Met next year. Reyes, 27, is eligible for free agency for the first time in his career when his five-year, $33.75 million contract expires at the end of this season. A three-time All-Star, Reyes has played his entire career with the Mets. An "ignitor," Mets fans have grown to love Reyes. They love his enthusiasm - his dances in the dugout, his high-fives with teammates, his goofy and spastic personality - but they also love the electricity he brings to the team. His combination to hit for average and to have plus speed is what defines an ignitor. No fan wants to see the day Jose Reyes leaves the New York Mets.
It's going to happen. Whether it's trade or signing with a new team in the offseason, Reyes will not be the Mets' starting shortstop next season. He's going to demand at least a seven-year deal for $120 million +, demands that a shortstop with a plus bat and a rocket for an arm should get, but demands that the Mets cannot match. I think that the best thing for the Mets is to trade Reyes for prospects that will help with the rebuilding of the franchise. Most recently, we've heard that the defending champion San Francisco Giants are interested in building a deal for Reyes. In my opinion (besides the Boston Red Sox), there could not be a better fit.
The Giants are lacking at shortstop. Since Omar Vizquel's departure, the Giants have had a revolving door at shortstop with names like Edgar Renteria, Emmanuel Burris, and Juan Uribe manning the position. Free agent signing Miguel Tejada (he's hitting just .198) has not produced this season, and with third baseman Pablo Sandoval missing the next four-to-six weeks on the DL, the Giants are definitely looking for a spark plug to their lack-luster offense. Reyes could be that spark plug that ignites the Giants and propels the team back to the playoffs and gets them out of the funk they've been in recently (16-16 this season). However, the Giants are not going to just get an All-Star shortstop for free; You gotta give to get, as they say.
So let's just say that the Mets are open to discussing a deal with San Francisco: What are realistic demands for the Mets the ask for in return for the Reyes? It wouldn't make sense to ask for top first base prospect Brandon Belt, seeing as the Mets already have a first baseman for years to come in Ike Davis, ditto that for Gary Brown seeing as the Mets have a surplus of young outfielders. Here is the package (after doing a very evaluative research) that I came up with that the Giants would have to send to New York.
Giants get:
SS Jose Reyes
Mets get:
RHP Zack Wheeler (#2)
SS Brandon Crawford (#6)
LHP Eric Surkamp (#9)
2B/SS Emmanuel Burriss
(The numbers are what these players currently rank in San Francisco's 2011 top-10 prospects by Baseball America)
Any deal to send Reyes to the Giants
must and most likely
will start with Wheeler. The Giants' 2009 first round pick was ranked the organization's second best prospect behind Belt, #55 in all of basball, and is the best pitcher in the Giants' minor league system. Just 20, he's pitching in Single A+ to a 2-1 record with a 4.00 in five starts. He's got ace-like potential and should develop into at best an ace and at worst a number two or three starter. Wheeler still has a lot of room for development and should be the prime target for the Mets to acquire.
While Wheeler would be the headliner of the deal, the Mets would also acquire shortstop prospect Brandon Crawford (2008, 4th round), left handed pitching prospect Eric Surkamp (2008, 6th round), and former top prospect Emmanuel Burriss. Crawford, 24, a former UCLA Bruin, is a plus defensive player with a great glove and good range. He's still got work to do on the offensive side of things, but the upside is there. Surkamp is lefty with the best control and the best changeup in the Giants' system. He's currently in Double AA pitching to a 2.05 ERA in five starts. Burriss was the Giants' first round pick in 2006 and was supposed to be their shortstop of the future. However, offensively Burriss could not secure himself a job on the major league roster, despite having a good 2008 season as a rookie. He has appeared in a total of 12 games in the majors since being sent down after 61 games in 2009.
Why would this be a good package for the Mets? For starters, Wheeler would instantly become the team's best pitching prospect. A rotation that would include Wheeler and top pitching prospect Jenrry Mejia, along with current workhorses Mike Pelfrey and Niese would be a very solid rotation for the future. As well, the Mets would be getting Reyes' future successor in Crawford, a solid #4 or #5 starter in Surkamp, and Burriss, who would most likely fill-in as the Mets starting shortstop for Reyes until Crawford is ready.
I think this is fair deal that San Francisco has to sacrifice. Originally, I thought of adding Gary Brown (#3 overall prospect in system) and Tommy Joseph (#10) with Wheeler and Crawford, but that's too much for a *potential* rental of Reyes, if he were to walk after the season.
Now that Reyes has been covered, let's move on the player fans probably want to stay the most: David Wright.
David Wright
Position: 3B
2011 season: .244, 5 HR, 16 RBI, .343 OBP
Free Agency: End of 2012 season, club option for 2013
Captain of the Mets? You could very well say so and make the case that Wright, since his burst upon the scene in 2004, is the team's leader. Wright, 28, was the Mets' first round pick in 2001 and has developed into their best player. He's a five-time All-Star, two-time NL Gold Glove winner, two-time Silver Slugger winner, and has been a consistent .300, 25+ HR, 100+ RBI player his whole career (with the exception being his 10 HR season in '09). He's not eligible for free agency until after the 2012 season when his six-year, $55 million contract expires, and if the Mets decide to turn down his 2013 club option. However, with the team's recent underachieving the past three seasons, the Mets may look to unload Wright for some plus prospects to boost their farm system. Trading Wright could net a bigger return than Reyes, but trading both players would surely make the future bright for the Mets.
When Wright's contract expires at the end of the next season, the Mets will most likely still be trying to steady themselves financially. He'll most likely ask for a seven-year deal for around $140+, which he should get. He's a bonafide All-Star third baseman with a fantastic glove and a power bat. However, the Mets probably won't be able to afford their franchise's best third baseman. Rather than deal with the heartbreak next year, and avoid having Wright become next year's Reyes, it might the "Wright" move for the Mets to deal Wright this summer (see what I did there?).
Among the rumored interested teams are the Detroit Tigers, who have made their interest known and are most interested in Wright. The Los Angeles Angels, Oakland Athletics, Florida Marlins and St. Louis Cardinals are among the teams that could be good fits for Wright. However, I don't see the Marlins (being an NL East team) as an option, ditto that for the Cardinals, who have a good third baseman in David Freese, despite him being out with a hand injury. I think the two most logical landing spots for Wright are Detroit and Los Angeles. Here are two deals that the Mets could make with either team.
TRADE #1
Tigers get:
3B David Wright
Mets get:
3B Brandon Inge ($11.5 million remaining contract, expires in 2012, club option for 2013)
RHP Jacob Turner (#1)
RHP Drew Smyly (#8)
RHP Jose Ortega (#10)
TRADE #2
Angels get:
3B David Wright
Mets get:
3B Alberto Callaspo
RHP Tyler Chatwood (#2)
3B Kaleb Cowart (#6)
RHP Garret Richards (#7)
As you can see in the two deals, and as it's been reported, the Mets are going to preach young pitching as their priority when it comes to trades. With Wright especially, they are going to ask for premium pitching in return. With these deals, I think it could go either way, but let's break it down:
TIGERS: With current third baseman and Detroit fan favorite Brandon Inge struggling, the Tigers are going to look to upgrading their offense. The Mets would most likely have to take Inge, 34, in return for Wright, seeing as the Tigers truly have no spot for Inge, as Magglio Ordonez is the team's designated hitter. He has $11.5 million remaining on his contract, which expires at the end of the 2012 season. Like Wright, he also has a 2013 club option. Inge is a leader and is best defined as a "gusty" player who gives it his all. A great defensive third baseman - perhaps one of the best in the game - Inge is also decent with the bat. He'll give you around 15-20 home runs, with a batting average somewhere in the .230 - .240 range. Inge would immediately step in as the Mets' everyday third baseman.
Jacob Turner is a tall right-hander with premium ace potential. The ninth overall pick in the 2009 draft, Turner is the Tigers' top prospect and #21 in all of baseball. Just 19, he's had some health concerns in the past and there's worry that the Tigers have rushed him, but he's still held onto the potential. At worst he's a #2 or #3 starter. Drew Smyly, 22, was the Tigers' second round pick in the 2010 draft. A left-hander, he seems destined to be a very good fourth starter. Jose Ortega, 21, is a young reliever from Venezuela with a plus arm.
ANGELS: The Angels have a surplus of infielders. Alberto Callaspo, Maicer Izturis, Howie Kendrick, and Erick Aybar each share time at 2B, SS and 3B regularly. However, with Izturis hitting like a mad man, Kendrick living up to this batting title potential, and Aybar returning from injury (he was the team's starting shortstop in 2009 and 2010), it seems as though Callaspo, although he's played the most games, is the odd man out if the Angels were to acquire Wright. Callaspo, 28, would be a good pickup for the Mets. He's a decent third baseman who can hit for some average (.295 this season), and plays solid defense. He'd step in as the starter.
Tyler Chatwood is the Angels' best pitching prospect. At age 21, he's in the majors now, pitching to a 2-1 record with a 4.08 ERA in six starts. He's been projected to be at worst a solid #3 starter, and he's got tremendous upside that could even push him to a #1 or #2. Chatwood was the Angels' second round pick in 2008. Kaleb Cowart, 18, was the Angels' first round pick in the 2010 draft. A third baseman with tremendous athletic ability, he could very well be the next David Wright. However, he doesn't have enough sample size to show for it. Garret Richards, 23, was the Angels' first round pick in 2009. He's a solid #2 or #3 pitcher in the majors and is only going to improve from there.
Like I said, you could go either way with these deals. They pretty much have the same talent, but if the Mets' truly want to prioritize pitching, the Tigers' deal is the way to go. I personally feel as though Wright to the Tigers is the best fit.
Nonetheless, the season is still young and this is all just pure speculation. For Mets fans sake, I'd like to see Wright and Reyes remain Mets for their whole careers, but with the organization's corruption and finances, it just dosen't seem likely. Trading these two stars is the right move for the Mets and perhaps the most positive for the future. Both deals would net huge prospects and would make the Mets' future just that much brighter. Enjoy your time in New York while you can Mr. Wright and Mr. Reyes, because it could be over soon.
(I started this at 8:03 this morning. So. Much. Work.)
Posts
