The Case Against Zack Greinke

Earlier today, it was reported that the New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals have bee having "serious discussions" regarding a trade for 2009 American League Cy Young Award winner, RHP Zack Greinke. The 27 year-old is signed for the next two seasons for $27 million, and has a no-trade clause in his contract with the Yankees, and other big money market teams, on the list of teams he can block trades to.

Early speculation was that Greinke, who suffers from a severe social anxiety disorder and depression (which caused him to miss most of the 2006 season), would be adverse to accepting a trade to New York, but as reported today, Greinke said that he would "consider pitching in New York," due to his longing desire to win, something the Kansas City Royals have not known since the 2003 season. Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports broke the story, with his source saying that "I wouldn't put it past him to go to New York," The source said. "I don't think he'd rule out anybody. He says he likes New York. Especially because they're winners. He wants to go to a team that wins."

Unlike other teams, Greinke, who had a historical season in 2009, going 16-8 with a 2.16 ERA, would be the Yankees' Plan B this offseason, depending on if top free agent left-hander ace Cliff Lee decides to sign with the Yankees. If Lee were to sign with New York, Greinke would no longer be a target, but, in the case that Lee does not sign with New York and stays in Texas, Greinke would become the prime focus of the Yankees' offseason.

However, reports are that the Royals' GM Dayton Moore is requiring a "Mark Teixeira-esque" overhaul in return for Grienke (if you are not familiar with the Mark Teixiera trade, click here), and would require “at least one major league-ready player and multiple high-level prospects,” Passan writes. When most Yankee fans hear that, they immediately know that the package would have to start with top prospect and 2011 catcher Jesus Montero, with other top names included. Along with Montero, the Yankees would most likely have to give up one of the highest-ceiling killer B's: either LHP Manuel Banuelos or RHP Dellin Betances, both who have top of the rotation potential. However, a deal with Montero and one of the B's wouldn't be all the Royals would require, as other top pitchers, such as Double-A righty Adam Warren or RHP Andrew Brackman, and shortstop Eduardo Nunez would have to be included in the deal, with possibly RHP Joba Chamberlain or RHP Ivan Nova also included. Not only is that a lot to give up, but it would completely decimate the farm system that Brian Cashman has worked to improve over the past decade.

So my question is, why would the Yankees gut their farm system for Greinke, when they could use their biggest asset, their wallet, and just sign Lee?

Thus, we have The Case Against Zack Greinke.

Am I knocking Greinke? No, he's a great pitcher, hell he could, if he keeps improving, develop into one of the best in the game. That being said, he his coming off an off-year, in which he went 10-14 wit ha 4.17 ERA. I like Greinke: he's young, affordable, and signed for the long term. But, what I don't like is the overhaul of prospects it would cost to acquire him. I've been an adversary of trading Montero since the Cliff Lee trade fell through last season, and I'm not willing to trade him for Greinke either. Banuelos and Betances could develop into better pitchers than Greinke.

The safe bet, at least I think, is to keep the farm system the way it is and continue to stock up. Sure, the Yanks could acquire Greinke, but who knows if he'll succeed in New York? He's had anxiety problems in the past, and they could get worse when dealing with the immense pressure of pitching for a team, and its fans, that expect to win every year and will boo you after one bad start. I don't think he'd succeed in New York, or Boston, for that matter.

The better option is to go for the reliable and cheaper (whatever way you define cheap) pitcher, that being Lee. Lee would only cost the Yankees dollars, something they have an infinite surplus of, rather than prospects. I'd much rather feel comfortable with the Yankees signing Lee, something I've been against in the past, rather than trading all their chips for Greinke. Sure, Greinke (27) is younger than Lee (33) and will probably be less expensive ($13.5 million to $25 million), but what Greinke doesn't have that Lee brings to the table is experience. Lee has pitched for the big market teams (Philadelphia, Texas (you could argue there)) and has appeared in two World Series the last two seasons. He's won a Cy Young (2008), like Greinke, has started an All-Star Game, and has been traded four times (Montreal to Cleveland, Cleveland to Philadelphia, Philadelphia to Seattle, Seattle to Texas) for top notch blue-chip prospects, and has propelled each of the teams he's been traded to (except for Seattle and Cleveland, where he pitched early in his career) to a playoff appearance and World Series appearance. He's more of a sure thing, and doesn't come with the same risk (psychological) as Greinke.

Yes, Lee's older and more expensive, but if it means keeping my top prospects, I'll take that any day. Writing a check is a hell of a lot easier than forking over your top hitter and pitcher and hoping they don't burn you in the future.