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Of course with free agency comes speculation, and I've offered my predictions on where the top free agents will end up:
1. LHP Cliff Lee
Age: 33
Former team: Texas Rangers
Previous salary: $9,000,000
Prediction: Texas Rangers, 5 years/$150 million
Yankee fans, hold your tongues and let me explain. I really think that Lee enjoyed his time in Texas. He was reported as saying that he "would love to return in 2011" and that "I like this team. It's a very fun team to play on," Lee said. "I expect this team to do some really good things next year. I don't know if I'm going to be a part of it or not. To be honest with you, I would love to be, but so many things can happen. You never know."
As well, the team wants him back. GM Jon Daniels said "We've made it clear we'd like to have him back. I know we're not the only club that would like to have him. It's a competitive market, as it should be, and we'll see what happens."
2. SS Derek Jeter
Age: 36
Former team: New York Yankees
Former salary: $22,600,000
Prediction: New York Yankees, 4 years/$85 million
Do I really have to say anything? Other than the fact that Jeter's annual salary will definitely take a hit from the $22 million he made this season due to a career-worst season (.270, 10 home runs, 67 RBIs), and his age, Jeter will be back with the Yankees. It's just a matter of how long and how big his contract is.
3. RHP Mariano Rivera
Age: 41
Former team: Yankees
Previous salary: $15,000,000
Prediction: Yankees, 2 years/$30 million
Pretty much.
4. LHP Andy Pettitte
Age: 39
Former team: Yankees
Previous salary: $11,750,000
Prediction: RETIRED
After years of deciding between a one-year contract or to retire, I think this is the year Pettitte hangs it up. Pettitte has said in the past that the only team he will play for is the Yankees, and rightfully so. However, he's been quoted on saying that "I've already accomplished everything I've ever wanted to," which has led to some speculation that the lefty may not return. At 39 years old, Pettitte will follow the same routine he has every offseason: go home, talk with his family, and make his decision. While he could return, especially coming off one of his best seasons (although he was partially injured), I think he's more likely to hang 'em up.
5. C Victor Martinez
Age: 32
Former team: Boston Red Sox
Previous salary: $7,700,000
Prediction: Detroit Tigers, 3 years/$30 million
Martinez's time in Beantown has come to a close. With trade-acquired and young catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia waiting in the wings to become the next Red Sox catcher, Martinez is likely on his way out. Not the best defensive catcher in baseball, Martinez is better known for his offense. With Tigers' backstop Gerald Laird granted free agency, and young rookie catcher Alex Avila struggling in his first full season, the Tigers will look for a veteran prescense to mentor their young star.
6. OF Jayson Werth
Age: 31
Former team: Philadelphia Phillies
Previous salary: $7,500,000
Prediction: San Francisco Giants, 4 years/$50 million
With budding young superstar outfielder Domonic Brown waiting to take over in right field for the Phight'n Phils, Werth may well be on his way out. With a crowded outfielder that carries the likes of Raul Ibanez in LF, Shane Victorino in CF and now Brown in RF, Werth is the odd man out. While the Phillies aren't neccessarily worried that they cannot afford Werth, they believe that Brown is a future superstar, and would like to sign a platoon-partner for the young outfielder so he can mature into his potential.
Enter the 2010 World Champs.
I think Werth will sign with the Giants for two reasons. One, with Aubrey Huff, Pat Burrell, Edgar Renteria, and Juan Uribe now free agents, as well as Cody Ross still (he may have saved himself in the postseason) being a non-tender candidate, the Giants will have to look to power-up their lineup if they want to defend their title. What better way than to sign Werth, who is coming off a year in which he hit .296 with 27 home runs and 85 RBIs. He would instantly become their biggest power threat. And two, the Giants play Werth's style of baseball: Grinding. Werth is a grind-it-out, rag-tag type of player who was deemed a "bust" before his arrival in Philly. After the 2008 season however, he emerged as one of the best players on the team, all the while still playing grinding baseball. It's a great match.
7. OF Carl Crawford
Age: 29
Former team: Tampa Bay Rays
Former salary: $10,000,000
Prediction: Yankees, 5 years/$75 million
Yet another case of being pushed out by a young prospect, Crawford too may be on his way out thanks to the Rays' top prospect LF Desmond Jennings. However, youth isn't the only thing that will push Crawford out of Tampa Bay: the life-long Devil Ray/Ray may be TOO expensive for the Rays to afford. With both Crawford and all-star slugging first baseman Carlos Pena also a free agent, the team may not be able to afford both of them, maybe not even one of them. Speculation is that neither will return to Tampa Bay because they will be too expensive. Crawford was quoted as saying that there's a "high possibility I probably won't be back next year." Crawford admitted that money will be one of the main factors in his decision, and added that "That's a big part of everything, but when it comes down to it, you just want to go somewhere where you're comfortable," he said. "And obviously the financial part, you just want to be paid for what you do, I guess."
Too expensive for Tampa? Not so much for the Bronx Bombers.
If the Yankees were to lose out on Cliff Lee, their next focus should be Crawford, especially if he gets deep into talks with the rival Boston Red Sox. With an outfield that could use some work, Crawford would be a tremendous upgrade in the outfield to join Curtis Granderson, Nick Swisher and Brett Gardner. If Crawford wants his money, New York is where to go.
8. OF/1B Adam Dunn
Age: 30
Former team: Washington Nationals
Former salary: $12,000,000
Prediction: Chicago White Sox, 3 years/$40 million
Dunn is what he is: a power hitter. A player who averages 40 home runs/year, Dunn continued to keep in line with those averages by belting out 38 long balls this season. Although he's said he wants to return to Washington, he may be too expensive and not in the long-term future plans for the Nationals. That being said, the White Sox were one of the teams who pushed hardest at the trade deadline to acquire Dunn, and they could very likely be his landing spot. With first baseman Paul Konerko likely to depart via free agency due to age, Dunn could take his spot as the team's next power hitter.
9. 1B Paul Konerko
Age: 34
Former team: Chicago White Sox
Former salary: $12,000,000
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels, 2 years/$28 million
Paulie is coming off one of his best seasons: he hit .312 and belted 39 home runs while driving in 111 RBIs. However, his days in Chicago may be over. At 34, Konerko, while still showing signs that he can keep-up with the game, may be too expensive an option for the White Sox, who are aiming to get younger. A fan-favorite, Konerko should field a nice contract somewhere, that somewhere being Los Angeles. The Angels tried to trade for Konerko at the trade deadline but were unsuccessful. After missing the playoffs and losing the AL West for the first time since 2007, the Angels will definitely be looking to reload. What better way than to have a 3-4 combination of 1B Kendry Morales and Konerko at DH?
10. CP Rafael Soriano
Age: 30
Former team: Tampa Bay Rays
Previous salary: $7,250,000
Prediction: Atlanta Braves, 3 years/$30 million
Like Crawford, Soriano may prove to be too expensive for the Rays. He's coming off an amazing season in which he compiled a 1.73 ERA with 45 saves. He's due for a pay raise and that may be why he's not going back to Tampa. I think he'll sign with the Braves, the team who traded him to Tampa Bay prior to the 2010 season. With closer Billy Wagner retiring, the Braves will be on the lookout for a new closer, and why not add Soriano? He's familiar with the team and my guess is, with a fat new contract, he wouldn't mind a return.
Other notable free agents (previous team and age in parenthesis):
Catchers
(Rangers, 36) Bengie Molina - RETIRE
(White Sox, 34) A.J. Pierzynski - White Sox, 2 years/$10 million
(Red Sox, 39) Jason Varitek - Toronto Blue Jays, 1-year/$2 million
First Baseman
(Yankees, 35) Lance Berkman - Detroit Tigers, 1-year/$8 million
(Giants, 34) Aubrey Huff - Oakland A's, 1-year/$8 million
(Braves, 35) Derrek Lee - Seattle Mariners, 2 years/$20 million
(Rays, 33) Carlos Pena - Colorado Rockies, 2 years/$18 million
Second Baseman
(Twins, 33) Orlando Hudson - Minnesota Twins, 1-year/$5 million
(Giants, 31) Juan Uribe - San Francisco Giants, 2 years/$10 million
Third Baseman
(Red Sox, 32) Adrian Beltre - St. Louis Cardinals, 3 years/$50 million
(Padres, 37) Miguel Tejada - RETIRE
(Orioles, 33) Ty Wigginton - New York Yankees, 1-year/$4 million
Shortstops
(Tigers, 28) Jhonny Peralta - Detroit Tigers, 3 years/$18 million
(Rangers, 33) Cristian Guzman - Texas Rangers, 2 years/$6 million
Outfielders
(Dodgers, 38) Manny Ramirez - Toronto Blue Jays, 1-year/$8 million
(Tigers, 36) Johnny Damon - Kansas City Royals, 1-year/$5 million
(Braves, 26) Melky Cabrera - New York Mets, 1-year/$3 million
(Rays, 32) Brad Hawpe - N/A
(Cubs, 32) Xavier Nady - Chicago Cubs, 1-year/$1.5 million
(Tigers, 37) Magglio Ordonez - RETIRE
(Giants, 34) Pat Burrell - Seattle Mariners, 1-year/$3 million
(Yankees, 34) Marcus Thames - New York Yankees, 1-year/$1.5 million
(Braves, 31) Rick Ankiel - Pittsburgh Pirates, 1-year/$2 million
(Braves, 32) Eric Hinske - Atlanta Braves, 1-year/$2 million
Designated Hitters
(Rockies, 40) Jason Giambi - RETIRE
(Rangers, 36) Vladimir Guerrero - Texas Rangers, 2 years/$16 million
(Angels, 36) Hideki Matsui - Seattle Mariners, 1-year/$5 million
(Red Sox, 35) David Ortiz - Boston Red Sox, 1-year/$8 million
(Twins, 40) Jim Thome - Minnesota Twins, 1-year/$8 million
Starting Pitchers
(Twins, 35) Carl Pavano - Minnesota Twins, 2 years/$16 million
(Padres, 30) Kevin Correia - San Diego Padres, 2 years/$14 million
(Rockies, 30) Jorge De la Rosa - Boston Red Sox, 2 years/$18 million
(Rangers, 29) Rich Harden - Oakland Athletics, 1-year/$4 million
(Dodgers, 36) Hiroki Kuroda - Los Angeles Dodgers, 1-year/$8 million
(Orioles, 36) Kevin Millwood - New York Mets, 1-year/$4 million
(Cardinals, 33) Brad Penney - Florida Marlins, 1-year/$5 million
(Padres, 32) Chris Young - Minnesota Twins, 1-year/$7 million
(Yankees, 34) Javier Vazquez - Washington Nationals, 2 years/$15 million
(Diamondbacks, 32) Brandon Webb - Tampa Bay Rays, 1-year/$8 million
(Cardinals, 33) Jake Westbrook - St. Louis Cardinals, 2 years/$10 million
Closers/Relievers
(Rangers, 31) Frank Francisco - Los Angeles Dodgers, 3 years/$15 million
(Twins, 35) Brian Fuentes - Minnesota Twins, 1-year/$5 million
(Brewers, 40) Trevor Hoffman - San Diego Padres, 1-year/$5 million
(Yankees, 34) Kerry Wood - New York Yankees, 2 years/$14 million
(Rays, 33) Grant Balfour - Tampa Bay Rays, 1-year/$5 million
(Rays, 33) Joaquin Benoit - New York Yankees, 1-year/$3 million
(Blue Jays, 33) Jason Frasor - Boston Red Sox, 2 years/$10 million
(Twins, 29) Jesse Crain - Minnesota Twins, 3 years/$12 million
(Blue Jays, 35) Scott Downs - Los Angeles Angels, 2 years/$10 million
(Mets, 34) Pedro Feliciano - New York Mets, 3 years/$15 million
(Braves, 41) Takashi Saito - RETIRE
Those are my predictions, what are yours?
We're just getting started on the Hot Stove folks. Stay tuned.
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