Why the Yankees will win the AL East...

You probably read the title, had a sarcastic short laugh, and automatically said to yourself "pssh, homer."

Yes, we all know I'm a big Yankee fan, but listen up, I swear to you that that didn't factor into my prediction.

The New York Yankees will win the American League East.

I know, I know. I've already prepped myself for the "homer" tag. But that's besides the point.

Over the course of the 2010 off-season, we all expected Cliff Lee to sign with the Yankees to be their second ace alongside CC Sabathia in a rotation that would also include Phil Hughes, A.J. Burnett and Ivan Nova. It would arguably be one of the best rotations in the game, and the Yankees would once again reign supreme as the game's most hated and toughest team.

But that fizzled out when Lee decided to sign with the Philadelphia Phillies.

Instead, the off-season was filled with heated Derek Jeter negotiations, an unwanted signing of Rafael Soriano and disappointment.

The Yankees were left without any options. Banking on a swan song return by Andy Pettitte, the Yankees really had no other options to turn to. The pitching market was sparing thin this off-season and outside of *ducks* Carl Pavano *comes back up* there wasn't anyone who would be an effective pitcher in the American League East. The Yankees' rotation at that time was Sabathia, Burnett, Hughes and two empty slates.

crap...

Just when it looked like things couldn't get any worse for the Yankees by missing out on Lee, the rival Boston Red Sox went out and completed a blockbuster deal for All-Star power-hitting first baseman Adrian Gonzalez from the San Diego Padres and inked All-Star outfielder Carl Crawford, formerly of the Tampa Bay Rays, to a seven-year, $142 million contract. Knowing that their competition was getting more and more fierce, the Yankees basically begged for Pettitte to come back for one last season, but it wasn't meant to be. Pettitte decided to announce his retirement just a few weeks later, leaving the Yankees scrambling for starting pitching.

In a game where starting pitching is the name of the game, the Yankees were out of luck.

The Red Sox were stacked. A rotation led by Jon Lester which also included Josh Beckett, John Lackey, Clay Buchholz, and Daisuke Matzusaka, to go along with a rebuffed lineup - which last year was second in runs scored in the league - that now included Gonzalez and Crawford seemed far more of a favorite to win the AL East in 2011 than the 2009 Champions.

How did the Yankees respond? They signed former closing pitcher Rafael Soriano, a good pick-up, but a move that GM Brian Cashman vocally made known he didn't want to make, to rebuff their bullpen in an effort to fix the "Bridge to Mariano Rivera".... for $36 million over 3-years, a contract many winced at. But how did they address their starting pitching? They signed Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon, two former All-Stars who have dealt with ineffectiveness and various injuries over the past few seasons, to minor league deals to fight out rookie Ivan Nova and journeyman Sergio Mitre for the last two spots in the rotation.

That's right. No Cliff Lee, so they signed two question marks.

Ivan Nova, you've got a believer in me.

Even the Yankees' lineup, which led the league in runs scored last year, has been underestimated this off-season, and for good reason. Can Derek Jeter bounce back from a career-worst season? Can Mark Teixeira get off to a hot start for once? Will Nick Swisher and Robinson Cano build on their All-Star 2010 seasons? How will Jorge Posada handle the transfer from catcher to designated hitter?

As of right now, even I'd pick the Red Sox as the favorite to win the AL East. But my gut tells me that the Yankees, who now have a ton of blue-chip prospects, could make a big splash prior to the trading deadline in July for a big-name, top-flight starting pitcher to bolster their rotation and lead them to the title.

Most are considering the Yankees the underdog in the East this year, but there's just one thing when it comes to predicting the AL East:

You can't count out the Yankees. They are the $200 million little train that could.

As it stands right now, Nova and Colon are the two leading candidates for the final two spots. I've been preaching since the beginning of the off-season for Nova to be in the rotation. This is a kid who is going to be a very serviceable major league pitcher. He had a fantastic season at Triple-A last season, and held his own during his cup of coffee in the major leagues. He has a chance to be a very good #3 or 4 pitcher in the majors. The Yankees are very high on him, and would love to see the 24-year old, homegrown prospect, be a part of their rotation for years to come. Nova could definitely be a difference maker this season for this team.

But that isn't why the Yankees are going to win the AL East.

No, the Yankees are going to win the AL East because the Red Sox have just as many question marks surrounding their team.

How will Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, and Jacoby Ellsbury play this year after missing a majority of last season with injuries? How will the whole team, which was decimated with injuries last season, respond? How will Adrian Gonzalez perform in the AL East after coming over from the National League? Will Jonathan Papelbon be consistent? How will Beckett, Lackey and Matzusaka perform this season after having sub-par years last season?

They're just as questionable.

Take care of that shoulder, Josh...

In my opinion, Matzusaka is no better than Nova. Over the past two seasons, he's dealt with various injuries and has lost velocity on his pitches. He hasn't been the pitcher the Red Sox paid over $100 million for out of Japan. Beckett, the former ace, went 6-6 last year with an ERA of 5.78 while dealing with shoulder injuries. Lackey, in his first season with the club, underperformed and finished 14-11. These three pitchers, aside from Lester and Buchholz, are just as questionable as Nova, Colon and Burnett.

That isn't to say the Yankees' bottom three are any better. Burnett will be looking to respond from a dismal 10-15 season, one in which he posted a 5.26 ERA and bombed in the postseason. Not only that, but he was inconsistent as well. Maybe inconsistent isn't a strong enough word. With Burnett you don't know what you're going to get each day. Nova is a rookie who hasn't really been battle tested. The only strike against him is that he can't get through a lineup twice, something that as he matures will work itself out. Colon hasn't pitched since 2009. That's self-explanatory in itself.

In this case though, I'll take the Yankees' "questionable 3" over the Red Sox.

Yes, the Red Sox three are far more experience than those of the Yankees, but they're also something else: injury prone.

A shoulder injury is a serious injury for a pitcher, and I have doubts that Beckett, who was also hit in the head and suffered a mild concussion during spring training, will return to form. If anything, he's just as questionable as Burnett. Matzusaka hasn't been effective in the last two years, and Lackey is Lackey: he doesn't have stuff that will scare you, and doesn't have stuff that will overpower you.

When it comes to the lineups of the two teams, they're pretty even. Russell Martin and Jarrod Saltalamacchia are pretty even at catcher. I'll give Gonzalez the upper hand at first base over Teixeira, seeing as the guy can absolutely crush the ball and that Tex is coming off a sub-par season. Second base is a no-brainer: Cano easily over Pedroia. I'll take Jeter at short over Marco Scutaro any day. The outfield stands at Brett Gardner/Curtis Granderson/Nick Swisher vs. Crawford/Ellsbury/J.D. Drew. It's pretty even, but I think Crawford is really the only threat in the outfield. David Ortiz slightly gets the win at DH over Posada, who has never DHed in a full season before.

But where the Yankees have the upper hand is in the bullpen.

Here's to hoping for Soriano not to flop for 36 million reasons.

While the Soriano signing was ill-advised by Cashman, it made the Yankees' bullpen perhaps the best in baseball. The Yankees also signed left-handed specialist Pedro Feliciano from the New York Mets. By having Joba Chamberlain/David Robertson, Soriano, and Mariano Rivera in the bullpen to finish out the final three innings, the Yankees have no-doubt shortened their game if they are leading. Nine inning games become six inning games for the opponent.

The Red Sox bullpen on the other hand, is inconsistent. Jonathan Papelbon was close to terrible last season, blowing many saves and close games. Hideki Okajima and co. were no better in the bullpen for the BoSox.

It's very close between these two teams. They are both powerhouses, but they are both questionable.

However, in the grand scheme of things, a strong bullpen looms large in a tight-division race where all the opponents (Rays, Toronto Blue Jays, Baltimore Orioles) have improved.

The AL East is going to be the toughest division in baseball this year, but the Yankees will reign supreme.