Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Mariners have set parameter to Lee trade with Mets

Geoff Baker, who covers the Mariners for The Seattle Times, has heard a new rumor involving the Cliff Lee sweepstakes. I dissected the sweet spots of the article:

- "And today, as Lee gets set to face the Yankees in the Big Apple, the buzz about a possible deal with the crosstown Mets is growing louder and louder."

- "There had been talk that a shoulder injury to Mejia two days ago may thwart New York's bid to land Lee. Mejia is expected to start throwing again within a couple of weeks and as colleague Larry Stone wrote this morning, Mets GM Omar Minaya is reminding folks that his team has other prospects to deal. And there's growing pressure on him to make that deal. The Philadelphia Phillies are not the offensive juggernaut they were expected to be and a Lee acquisition could give the Mets just enough to hold them off and win the NL East. And possibly advance to a World Series."

- "Yes, the Cards offering up the 19th overall pick in last year's draft, pitcher Shelby Miller, is intriguing if true. But he's still a few years away and, if anything, the M's could be better off leveraging those rumors in order to squeeze a better package out of other suitors. As good as Miller could be, he might never be as good as Mejia is right now at a level much closer to the big leagues. And if Mejia is off the table because of the injury, or the M's want a position player instead? Then, you make the deal about catcher Josh Thole, 23, (Photo Credit: AP) a prospect who already posted a .356 OBP in his first 56 plate appearances in the big leagues last season. Throw Thole and Pagan together and you've likely upgraded your catching -- at least offensively --and left field spot for this year and beyond."

- "Word out of New York is that the Mariners have set a Thole-Pagan-pitching prospect trio as the parameters to any Lee deal. It doesn't surprise me the M's would be looking at Pagan as the deal's secondary piece, since he's a better major leaguer right now than any left fielder the Mariners could put out there. At worst, if Michael Saunders were to develop, Pagan would make an excellent fourth outfielder on a championship caliber club. Not a last-place club, a championship caliber club. And there's a huge difference."

- "Asking for top players means you have to maximize what other teams are going to get. That means a full half-season of Lee. If the M's truly want something along the Thole-Pagan-prospect lines -- a fantastic haul, in my opinion -- then they can't dither for another few weeks and wait for the deadline to approach. You likely won't get a much better package than that, even from the Twins.

While Wilson Ramos might be a slightly better catcher than Thole, you're talking about a position where the M's still have a good prospect in Adam Moore and it's only one position out of nine being addressed in the trade return, along with a fourth starter type like Kevin Slowey being acquired as well. This team already has a bunch of fourth and fifth starters. Deal with the Mets, and you're filling two holes at once. Pagan is a good left fielder who can field, get on-base and put up an .800 OPS, which would instantly make him one of the better all-around guys on this Seattle team.

Even if Thole is slightly worse as a catcher than Ramos, as long as he gives you a chance at upgrading what the team already has, you still come out ahead in that deal because you've filled two lineup spots. And filled them effectively, not just with junk."

Also, I got this from Mike Silva's New York Baseball Digest:

- "We all know the Mets interest in Cliff Lee, but to date all we have heard is what they don’t want to give up in a deal.

Yesterday, NYBD talked to a league source that indicated parameters of a deal would include Josh Thole, Angel Pagan, and a prospect for Cliff Lee. At this point I don’t have an idea what kind of prospect they would be looking for, but I would have to assume it would be pitching."

- "It should be obvious why Lee isn’t in Queens yet since Pagan is one of the players, along with Ike Davis, Jenrry Mejia and Jonathon Niese, the Mets are rumored to not want to part with.Again, I don’t believe the Mets should have to overpay for what essentially will be a rental. Thole and a pitching prospect (i.e. Jeurys Familia) should be more than enough."

Wow.

It seems as though Seattle definitely wants OF Angel Pagan and C Josh Thole, but they also want an additional pitching prospect. I agree with Silva that the Mets should offer Pagan, Thole and Familia. That would be a steal if the Mets would be willing to part with those players. Can you imagine a 1-2-3 of Santana-Lee-Pelfrey? Oh my goodness, there's your NL East Champs and NL Champs right there.

It seems Cliff Lee may be making his final start for the Mariners tonight, and what better way to close it out and up your stock than by beating the New York Yankees?

It seems as though the "Cliff Lee to the Mets" rumors keep heating up. We'll be updating all day, making sure to bring you everything that's heard and whispered. Keep it here, because it seems like a deal could be done tonight.

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