Mets 2010 Trade Target: Fausto Carmona

Fausto Carmona, RHP Cleveland Indians
2010 season: 6-5, 3.31 ERA, 92.1 IP, 1.22 WHIP

It wasn't long ago that Fausto Carmona was deemed to be one of the game's best pitchers for the foreseeable future. After all, he went 19-8 with a 3.06 ERA in 2007, and, in 2008, was rewarded a four-year $15 million contract. Then it all went downhill for Carmona. Injuries derailed Carmona's 2008 season, as he finished at 8-7 with a 5.44 ERA. 2009 wasn't any better for Carmona, as he again struggled through injuries and finished at an even worse 5-12 with a 6.32 ERA. However, it appears as though this year Carmona, 26, has figured out his groove again, sporting a 6-5 record with a 3.31 ERA through 14 starts this season.

Signed in 2000 as an undrafted free agent out of the Dominican Republic by the Indians at age 17, Carmona put himself on the map in 2003, when at Single-A Lake County, he went 17-4. He split time between A, AA, and AAA in 2004-05, going 13-9 in AAA Buffalo in 2005. The Dominican born Carmona made his major league debut in April 2006, earning his first career win over the Detroit Tigers at age 23. It'd be the only win for Carmona that season, as he was later pushed to the bullpen and finished 1-10 with a 5.42 ERA. Carmona made the Indians' rotation as the fifth starter in 2007, with low expectations. Those low expectations helped Carmona take the baseball world by storm. Carmona, along with ace CC Sabathia (who went on to win the Cy Young that season), led the Indians to their first AL Central Title since 2001, posting a 19-8 record with a 3.06 ERA. Carmona pitched his first career post season game that season in the ALDS against the New York Yankees. He pitched 9 innings of 1 run baseball, allowing just 3 hits in an extra inning win. The Indians would go on to the ALCS, where Carmona ended up getting battered by the Boston Red Sox in Game 6, where he left after just two plus innings while giving up seven runs in a game that would eliminate the Indians from the playoffs.

His 2007 season performance rewarded Carmona with a four-year $15 million contract that runs through 2011 and includes three individual club options through 2014, totaling $43 million if the contract runs through, including $5 million in incentives. His 2008 and 2009 seasons made the Indians look foolish for that contract however, as he went 8-7 with a 5.44 ERA in 2008 and 5-12 with a 6.32 ERA in 2009 with opponents batting .295 against him. It seemed as though Carmona's 2007 season was a fluke.


This season however, Carmona has come back stronger than ever for a dismal Indians team. Since trading aces CC Sabathia in 2008 and Cliff Lee in 2009, Carmona was pronounced the ace of the Indians' staff, despite his below .500 records and terrible 2009 (shows you how bad a team Cleveland is). Suffice to say, Carmona has surprised everyone, pitching to a 6-5 record so far with a 3.31 ERA. Due to Cleveland's poor season and rebuilding effort, the Indians are reportedly open to deal the 26 year-old right-hander for the right price. Enter the New York Mets.

This week, we heard that the Mets have had internal discussions regarding a trade for Carmona. The Mets are looking to upgrade their rotation in order to make a playoff-push. I recently posted that they were interested in Jake Westbrook, but a trade for Carmona would be much better for the Mets. Carmona is enjoying a nice season, and placing him behind Mike Pelfrey and Johan Santana would make for a powerful Mets rotation. He's obviously capable of winning 19+ games, as he did in 2007, but he's also struggled the past two seasons, so this could be a high risk, high reward type of trade. The Mets would be more than willing to make that type of trade. They need pitching, and Carmona would help them out greatly. Moving an AL pitcher to the NL is always a smart move. He's only 26, and the Mets would control him through his age 28 2011 season, as well as having the three years of options for 2012, 2013, and 2014. He's owed just $8.9 million through 2011, an average of $4.4 million per season, making him a very cheap effective pitcher. He's also latino, and you all know how much Omar loves latino players.

However, because Carmona's salary is not huge, he's young, he has three option years, and he has so much upside, the Indians would probably require a top level prospect in order to deal Carmona. This means that the Mets would have to offer up a package of at least OF Fernando Martinez, RHP Brad Holt, and OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis in order to land Carmona. I think this would be a fair trade for the Mets, as well as the Indians. Cleveland would acquire a corner outfielder with a high ceiling in Martinez, joining him with Cleveland's other top outfield prospect, CF Michael Brantley, who came over in 2008's CC Sabathia-Brewers trade, and All-Star RF Shin-Soo Choo. This would also allow the Indians to trade CF Grady Sizemore, arguably the best player on their team, for more prospects to rebuild. A future outfield of Martinez-Brantley-Choo would make the Indians' future much brighter. The Indians would also acquire a high potential starting pitcher in Holt, as well as a lower level prospect in Nieuwenhuis. The Mets would acquire themselves a young, inexpensive, high ceiling pitcher who would be inserted into the rotation immediately. If I were Omar Minaya, I would have already made a proposal.

Like all players though, Carmona does have some questions. While the Mets are not worried that Carmona will continue his success this season, they are worried that he may struggle under the pressures of playing in New York. They feel that coming to New York in the middle of a playoff push could make Carmona collapse under the pressure and that he would revert to his 2009 form. This seems however, not to be that great of an issue.

Perhaps the Mets do not feel that Carmona could help them down the stretch. Recently, Mets players have expressed their desire for ownership to acquire an elite starting pitcher with both Roy Oswalt and Cliff Lee on the block. Many analysts are skeptical though that the Mets do not have the players that both the Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros covet, making Carmona a more likely option.

I think that acquiring Fausto Carmona would make perfect sense for the Mets. They'd acquire a young pitcher with a high ceiling and 20-game win potential. They'd also have three years of option control on Carmona, while only owing him $4.4/season. If I'm the Mets it's a no-brainer. It all depends on if Omar Minaya will offer up the right prospects, and if the Mets truly feel that Carmona is their man.