Mets Trade Target 2010: Kevin Millwood

Kevin Millwood, RHP Baltimore Orioles
2010 season: 2-8, 5.22, 101.2 IP, 1.51 WHIP

An 11th round draft pick in 1993 by the Atlanta Braves, Kevin Millwood has been a pleasant surprise throughout his career. After his rookie season with Atlanta in 1997, a 23-year old Millwood won 17 games in his first full season in 1998, finishing 17-8 with a 4.08 ERA. However, the best of Millwood was yet to come. In 1999, arguably his best season, he finished 18-7 with a 2.68 ERA and made the National League All-Star Team for the first and only time in this career. His next two seasons were disappointing, as Millwood failed to have an above .500 record. He found his groove again in 2002 however, going 18-8 with a 3.24 ERA. The 2002 season would be Millwood's last with Atlanta, as he was traded prior to 2003 to the Philadelphia Phillies. During his first year in Philadelphia, the North Carolina native went 14-12 with a 4.02 ERA, while also pitching a no-hitter on April 27, 2003 against the San Francisco Giants. He was granted free agency following the 2004 season, and signed a 1-year contract with the Cleveland Indians. He finished with a 9-11 record in Cleveland due to poor run support, but also had a 2.86 ERA, which ultimately boosted his value and helped him cash in. Following 2005, Millwood was a free agent again, and on December 26, 2005 signed a five-year $60 million contract with the Texas Rangers. His years in Texas have led some to believe that he was overpaid. He finished 16-12 in 2006, but had a 4.02 ERA and had a sub .500 record with ERAs over 5.00 until 2009, where even then he went just 13-10. Millwood was traded to Baltimore following the 2009 season for Chris Ray and Ben Snyder. He is currently 2-8 this season with a 5.22 ERA. During his 14-year career, Millwood is 157-129 with a career 4.08 ERA.

The 2010 season could not be any more harsh for Kevin Millwood, 35, than it has been. Pitching on a Baltimore team that has the worst record in baseball at 20-52, and is projected to be historically one of the worst teams ever, Millwood has gone through the bad of the 2010 season. Through his first 14 starts this season, Millwood was 0-8. He won for the first time this season on June 19th against the San Diego Padres. His last two starts have resulted at wins, pushing his record to 2-8 on the season. Millwood has made 16 starts this season, with some wins being lost due to the weak Baltimore offense and terrible bullpen. Recently the Orioles have stated that they are open for trade and are willing to deal the right-handed Millwood. You can't help but think that Millwood would be thrilled to get out of Baltimore.

Among the interested teams in Millwood: the "pitching-hungry" New York Mets.

We've heard the Mets connected to Millwood in trade rumors this season. Many feel as though Millwood would come cheap due to his age and performance this season. As well as age and performance, his $12 million salary also presents a reason for him to come cheap, especially if the acquiring team, in this case the Mets, has to pay it. The other reason that many feel he would cost low prospects is because Millwood's contract runs out at the end of the season, making him a free agent.

There's always the issue of what to give up as far as prospects go. Due to his age, effectiveness, and cost, if I'm the Mets I'm not giving more than a B minus or C level prospect. That means a trade of LHP Eric Niesen and RHP Tobi Stoner for Millwood, especially if the Mets are paying his salary. Seeing as the Mets would most likely not sign Millwood to an extension with Cliff Lee as a free agent, that package of prospects seems fair to give especially with Millwood's 2-8 record. While I think that it would be a good rental for the Mets to acquire Millwood, I don't think that it may be the best option to go to, especially with Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, Fausto Carmona, and Jake Westbrook available.

Then, there is the question of do the Mets really feel that Millwood will help them out? He's 2-8 with an ERA over 5.00 this season, and has an opponent's avg against of .299. That is scary. He's also given up 31 BB this season. All the while, he's making $12 million. If the Mets are truly making a playoff push, I don't think Millwood is their answer. A rotation that includes Santana-Pelfrey-Millwood-Niese-Dickey would not scare me come a short playoff series.

As for me, I'd rather spend the prospects and money on someone younger and cheaper, such as Fausto Carmona or Cliff Lee. If I'm the Mets, I'm not trading for Millwood. I feel for the guy, pitching in Baltimore and having a harsh season, but he's not the answer to the Mets hopes and hopefully will get traded elsewhere to compete.